Mechanism: MAPP competitive funding
Item Transitioned: The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) is a seasonal prediction system that combines forecasts from the leading North American climate models. It constitutes a multi-agency and multi-institutional research-to-operations (R2O) effort jointly led by the NOAA Climate Program Office (CPO) Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) program and the NOAA Climate Test Bed (CTB). The NMME’s increased ensemble size compared to NCEP’s operational Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) and its diversity of models contribute to superior seasonal forecast skill, on average, relative to other seasonal prediction systems. In addition, the NMME system enables more reliable estimates of prediction confidence, critical information for decision makers. NMME predictions and hindcasts provide a unique research platform for predictability and prediction research.
Purpose of Transition: In September 2014, an expert panel reviewed the outcome of the NMME research project, as part of the NOAA CTB process, and determined that the system was ready for deployment into NWS operations based on the performance of the experimental NMME system relative to other available seasonal prediction systems. Following the review, NOAA decided to transition the NMME to operations and started the underpinning process while the NMME real-time predictions were incorporated as part of the NWS operational production suite.The transition process was formally completed in May 2016.
The transition of the NMME to operational mode serves the dual purpose of enhancing operational seasonal forecasts at NCEP and Environment Canada and enabling research on prediction and modeling based on NMME data. The operational NMME allows the operational centers involved to receive improved forecast data and the research centers to have their models tested in an operational environment, which will inform future model development. The publicly available NMME real-time and hindcast forecasts also enable research at the participating centers, as well as in the larger science community.
It constitutes a multi-agency and multi-institutional research-to-operations (R2O) effort jointly led by the NOAA Climate Program Office (CPO) Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) program and the NOAA Climate Test Bed (CTB).
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction
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