The OAR Climate Program Office’s Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections (MAPP) Program has organized the Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Task Force to advance NOAA’s and the Nation’s capability to model and predict sources of S2S predictability. The ultimate goal of this initiative is to help close the gap in prediction skill and products between traditional weather and seasonal lead times.

The core membership of the Task Force is comprised of MAPP-supported scientists from universities, research laboratories, and NOAA centers and laboratories funded through the fiscal year 2016 MAPP–National Weather Service (NWS) Science and Technology Integration (STI) grant competition "Research to Advance Prediction of Subseasonal to Seasonal Phenomena". Members of the Task Force also include MAPP-funded scientists participating in the Subseasonal Experiment, SubX, an interagency research project to test subseasonal prediction models for NWS operations selected via a MAPP-NOAA Climate Test Bed competition, as well as invited scientists from across the community with interest and expertise in the S2S prediction problem.

Through monthly teleconferences, the Task Force provides a formal mechanism for MAPP-supported PIs to share new datasets, methodologies, and results, as well as to ultimately synthesize their collective efforts through technical reports, review articles, journal special collections and engage with the rest of the community via workshops and meeting sessions. The Task Force collaborates and coordinates with ongoing national and international S2S prediction, research, and applications efforts, such as the NOAA NWS/STI Weeks 3-4: Improving Mid-range Weather Outlooks Initiative, the US Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Predictability, Predictions, and Applications Interface Panel, and World Meteorological Organization Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project.

The S2S Prediction Task Force is a three-year effort starting September 2016.

Key research questions and activities (two-page pdf); prepared March 2017


➜ Relevant MAPP Program PIs and selected additional invitees.

Elizabeth Barnes (Lead), Colorado State University
Edmund Chang (Co-Lead), Stony Brook University
Paul Dirmeyer (Co-Lead), George Mason University/COLA
Andrea Lang (Co-Lead), University at Albany
Kathleen Pegion (Co-Lead), George Mason University

To view the full Participants list, please visit the Participants page.


For the abstracts of S2S and SubX projects funded from MAPP's FY16 competitions, please click here.

S2S Prediction Task Force Terms of Reference

  • The MAPP Program Management has selected one lead scientist and four co-leads for the Task Force.
  • MAPP Program management oversees Task Force activities, working with the leads.
  • All PIs supported through the MAPP FY16 S2S research competition are expected to participate in the Task Force, as described in their proposals. Otherwise, participation in the Task Force is by invitation.
  • Most of the Task Force work will be conducted remotely via telecons or virtual meetings, or through meetings of opportunity.

MAPP Task Force Concept and Terms of Reference



Image: Cover photo for AGU S2S Prediction Task Force Special Collection. Credit: Andrea Lang (U. of Albany)

An AGU special collection

titled “Bridging Weather and Climate: Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Prediction” is being published in the Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres and Geophysical Research Letters. This special collection is organized by the S2S Prediction Task Force leads and was open to the entire international S2S community until June 30, 2019. To date, the collection includes 25 published research papers.


News & Events

NOAA Research plays key role in advancing subseasonal extreme weather and climate prediction

Representatives from academia, government, and the private sector recently concluded a two day NOAA-supported workshop on improving understanding and prediction of extreme weather and climate from two weeks to a season ahead (subseasonal to seasonal). This workshop followed a kickoff meeting for a new NOAA Research-organized Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Task Force.  

Planners and decision-makers need advanced notice of hazards like heat waves, cold spells, heavy rain, and hurricanes in order to take preemptive actions for protecting communities. Previous prediction efforts have mostly focused on forecasting either days (“weather”) or seasons ahead (“climate”), but the time range in between is key for preparing for extreme events. Bridging this gap, also known as the S2S prediction gap, is recognized as a high priority both nationally and internationally.

The events aimed to advance the research goals of the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) S2S Prediction Project, under the joint auspices of the World Weather Research Program (WWRP) and the World Climate Research Program. “This team will provide an important concrete map to WMO members, “ said Paolo Ruti, Chief of WMO’s WWRP Division, regarding the NOAA S2S Prediction Task Force. “We need to make sure stakeholders understand the potential behind this effort as well as the uncertainty that this kind of prediction will have.”

Participants included Dr. Michael Ventrice, Operational Scientist at The Weather Company, whose talk discussed how he uses NOAA models to deliver timely and easy-to-use S2S forecasts for clients in the agriculture, retail, aviation, and energy sectors. He and other attendees recognized the value of the S2S effort for a wide variety of stakeholders. “It’s getting people aware that these extreme events are coming and how they can prepare for them,” said Libby Barnes, S2S Prediction Task Force Lead and Assistant Professor at Colorado State University. For example, “Do they need to let water into the reservoirs or do they need to hold on to water because we don’t expect any rain in the next month?”

NOAA Research’s Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) Program organizes the S2S Prediction Task Force and contributed to the workshop held at Columbia University’s International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society. Regarding NOAA’s involvement in this effort, Ben Kirtman, Director of the Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies at the University of Miami and S2S Prediction Task Force member, said, “It will help identify physical processes that are critically important for improving NOAA’s models, and improving the Next Generation Global Prediction System, and then ultimately improving the forecasts that are given to the public. That’s NOAA’s mission.”

The S2S Prediction Task Force Kickoff Meeting and IRI S2S Extremes Workshop were held Dec. 5th and Dec. 6-7th, respectively, at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Campus of Columbia University in Palisades, New York.

For more information about the MAPP S2S Prediction Task Force and the S2S Prediction Project, go to cpo.noaa.gov/MAPP/s2stf and http://s2sprediction.net/. Workshop information can be found at http://iri.columbia.edu/s2s-extremes-workshop-2016/





Dr. Annarita Mariotti
MAPP Program Director
P: 301-734-1237
E: annarita.mariotti@noaa.gov

Dr. Daniel Barrie
MAPP Program Manager
P: 301-734-1256
E: daniel.barrie@noaa.gov

Amara Huddleston*
MAPP Communications & Program Analyst
P: 301-734-1218
E: amara.huddleston@noaa.gov

Courtney Byrd*
MAPP Program Assistant
P: 301-734-1257
E: courtney.byrd@noaa.gov

«September 2020»


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