A subgroup of the NOAA Drought Task Force
The report points out a few key findings: the impacts of El Niño on California winter precipitation are likely to be greater in late winter than in early winter; southern California has a stronger chance of wet conditions than northern California; and, in case of a very strong El Niño, heavy precipitation is more likely across the entire state. However, the researchers noted that their assessment results are provisional and based on historical events — the results should not be taken as a forecast. The 2015-2016 event will need to be monitored closely to see how it evolves and what types of impacts it generates along the West Coast.
View the assessment