Mechanism: MAPP competitive funding

Item Transitioned: The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) is a seasonal prediction system that combines forecasts from the leading North American climate models. It constitutes a multi-agency and multi-institutional research-to-operations (R2O) effort jointly led by the NOAA Climate Program Office (CPO) Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) program and the NOAA Climate Test Bed (CTB). The NMME’s increased ensemble size compared to NCEP’s operational Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) and its diversity of models contribute to superior seasonal forecast skill, on average, relative to other seasonal prediction systems. In addition, the NMME system enables more reliable estimates of prediction confidence, critical information for decision makers. NMME predictions and hindcasts provide a unique research platform for predictability and prediction research.

Purpose of Transition: In September 2014, an expert panel reviewed the outcome of the NMME research project, as part of the NOAA CTB process, and determined that the system was ready for deployment into NWS operations based on the performance of the experimental NMME system relative to other available seasonal prediction systems. Following the review, NOAA decided to transition the NMME to operations and started the underpinning process while the NMME real-time predictions were incorporated as part of the NWS operational production suite.The transition process was formally completed in May 2016.

The transition of the NMME to operational mode serves the dual purpose of enhancing operational seasonal forecasts at NCEP and Environment Canada and enabling research on prediction and modeling based on NMME data. The operational NMME allows the operational centers involved to receive improved forecast data and the research centers to have their models tested in an operational environment, which will inform future model development. The publicly available NMME real-time and hindcast forecasts also enable research at the participating centers, as well as in the larger science community.

From Where:
It constitutes a multi-agency and multi-institutional research-to-operations (R2O) effort jointly led by the NOAA Climate Program Office (CPO) Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) program and the NOAA Climate Test Bed (CTB).

To Where:
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Date Completed:
May 2016

Transition Year:
FY 2016

Comments:
For more information about the NMME, visit:
cpo.noaa.gov/mapp/nmme
News Item

Mechanism: MAPP competitive funding

Item Transitioned: Background: In this proposal, we explore an objective scheme for drawing boundaries between the D0-D4 classes used by the USDM. We use multiple drought indices that are derived from NLDAS outputs, from which we form an ensemble mean of all indices. We then remap the mean index to a uniform distribution by using the climatology of the ensemble (percentiles) averages. The mean index is called Integrated Drought Index (IDI). To assess uncertainties in the classifications, we use a concurrence measure among indices to measure uncertainties in the classification.

Items transitioned: The procedures to calculate drought indices such as the standardized runoff index (SRI) , soil moisture percentiles (SMP) and standardized precipitation index were transitioned. We at CPC now produce SRI, SMP , SPI and from the NLDAS daily. The IDI and concurrence measure are also produced. These indices are used in the CPC monthly Drought Briefing and information is given to drought forecasters.

Purpose of Transition: Drought forecasters can have more reliable drought assessment

From Where:
Organization: UCLA
Point of Contact: Dennis P. Lettenmaier

To Where:
Organization: NOAA/CPC
Point of Contact: Kingtse C. Mo

Date Completed:
Fall 2015

Transition Year:
FY 2016

Comments:
N/A

Mechanism: MAPP competitive funding

Item Transitioned: Improvements to operational GFS boundary layer scheme, including a new 'hybrid eddy-diffusivity mass flux' (EDMF) approach for strongly unstable boundary layers, and a new treatment of atmospheric heating due to parameterized turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) dissipation, implemented by Jongil Han of NCEP. The result is an improved GFS simulation of global cloud cover and better atmospheric energy conservation while maintaining traditional weather forecast skill metrics.

Purpose of Transition: Improve GFS performance both as a weather forecast and short-range climate model.

From Where:
Organization: University of Washington and other CPT participants (see comments)
Point of Contact: Chris Bretherton

To Where:
Organization: NOAA NCEP EMC
Point of Contact: Jongil Han

Date Completed:
January 2015

Transition Year:
FY 2015

Comments:
These code modifications resulted from joint model diagnostic and model development efforts involving CPT participants at JPL, Univ. of Washington and NCAR as well as at NCEP.

Mechanism: MAPP competitive funding

Item Transitioned: Reconstructions of sea level for the past two millennia for Connecticut, New Jersey, and Florida; semi-emperical and expert assessments of sea level rise by 2100 and 2300; assessments of storm surge and inundation risk for New York City

Purpose of Transition: Improve understanding of risks from coastal inundation along the Eastern seaboard of the United States.

From Where:
Organization: Rutgers University and collaborators
Point of Contact: Benjamin Horton

To Where:
Organization: Applications and scientific community
Point of Contact: Dan Barrie

Date Completed:
2014

Transition Year:
FY 2014

Comments:
Other institutional contributors include Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, East Carolina University, Florida Institute of Technology, Penn State University, University of Toronto, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Princeton University, Tufts University

Mechanism: MAPP competitive funding

Item Transitioned: Technical report

Purpose of Transition: To inform the applications and assessments communities of differences between CMIP3 and CMIP5 projections for the United States.

From Where:
Organization: Princeton University
Point of Contact: Justin Sheffield

To Where:
Organization: OAR Climate Program Office
Point of Contact: Dan Barrie

Date Completed:
December 2014

Transition Year:
FY 2015

Comments:
N/A

Mechanism: MAPP competitive funding

Item Transitioned: Assessment report

Purpose of Transition: To inform the stakeholder community of causes of the ongoing California drought

From Where:
Organization: Drought Task Force
Point of Contact: Richard Seager

To Where:
Organization: OAR Climate Program Office
Point of Contact: Dan Barrie

Date Completed:
December 2014

Transition Year:
FY 2015

Comments:
N/A

Mechanism: MAPP competitive funding

Item Transitioned: Summer drought early warning indicator for US southern Plains

Purpose of Transition: Support state agencies, river authorities and stakeholders for water resource planning

From Where:
Organization: Jackson School of Geosciences, University of Texas at Austin
Point of Contact: Robert Mace & Ruben Solis

To Where:
Organization: Texas Water Development Board
Point of Contact: Robert Mace & Ruben Solis

Date Completed:
September 2014

Transition Year:
FY 2014

Comments:
The impact of 2011 Texas drought motivated work with the state agency, applying understanding gained from NOAA supported observational studies and CMIP5 model evaluations, to support state water resource decision making.

Mechanism: MAPP competitive funding

Item Transitioned: NLDAS forcing generation algorithm, four land surface models (Noah, Mosaic, SAC, VIC), River Routing model housed at EMC, and all NLDAS-related scripts and codes for NLDAS v2.0.3

Purpose of Transition: Provide reliable NLDAS products to US operational applications such as US operational drought monitoring and prediction and weather/climate prediction.

From Where:
Organization: NCEP Environemntal Modeling Center
Point of Contact: Michael Ek and Youlong Xia, Eric Wood

To Where:
Organization: NCEP Central Operations (NCO)
Point of Contact: Christine Magee

Date Completed:
August 2014

Transition Year:
FY 2014

Comments:
This is a new implementation for transitioning a long-term, many-institutional collaborative project to NCEP operations. This is a successful example to transition from research to operation (R2O).

Item Transitioned: New release of Earth System CoG version 2.4.0

Purpose of Transition: This release completes a major milestone toward CoG becoming the new web front end for the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) in that CoG can now be federated. This will allow CoG to be deployed with ESGF nodes in order to form joint ESGF-CoG installations. For CoG, federation means that from any ESGF-CoG installation, you can see and link to CoG projects at other installations. Through CoG, users can search for data across the entire ESGF federation and access Data Carts at other ESGF-CoG installations.

From Where:
Organization: NOAA Environmental Software Infrastructure and Interoperability (NESII) Group
Point of Contact: Cecilia DeLuca

To Where:
Organization: Earth System CoG hosts about 70 projects and 400 registered users including the High Impact Weather Prediction Project (HIWPP), It is being deployed as a front end to the Earth System Grid Federation, which has about 20,000 registered users
Point of Contact: Tim Schneider, Mark Iredell, Dean Williams

Date Completed:
July 2014

Transition Year:
FY 2014

Comments:
The Earth System CoG collaboration environment offers wiki websites for project hosting, the ability to connect projects into networks for collaboration, and data and metadata services. Users can access CoG at: www.earthsystemcog.org

Mechanism: MAPP competitive funding

Item Transitioned: Revised parameterizations of convection in the NOAA/GFDL global model HiRAM and the NASA global model GEOS5

Purpose of Transition: To provide better simulation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation - a key mode of tropical weather and climate variability

From Where:
Organization: CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL PSD
Point of Contact: Stefan Tulich

To Where:
Organization: NOAA GFDL, NASA GSFC
Point of Contact: Ming Zhao, WIlliam Putman

Date Completed:
July 2014

Transition Year:
FY 2014

Comments:
N/A

Item Transitioned: New release of ES-DOC's Common Information Model (CIM) Questionnaire version 0.11.0.0

Purpose of Transition: This release represents a major refactoring of the CIM Questionnaire code. This includes the addition of a unit testing framework and simplification of the underlying class structure. These two changes have improved the code robustness and significantly reduced the number of memory leaks that were causing server instability. The code refactoring also allows users to save partially-completed documents, a major improvement in the user experience since many CIM documents take more than one session to complete. Additionally, projects now have an index page where their documents are listed for easier access.

From Where:
Organization: NOAA Environmental Software Infrastructure and Interoperability (NESII) Group
Point of Contact: Cecilia DeLuca

To Where:
Organization: The ES-DOC's Common Information Model (CIM) Questionnaire is being prepared for use in multiple NOAA-relevant model intercomparison projects, including the High Impact Weather Prediction Project (HIWPP), Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6)
Point of Contact: Timothy Schneider, Karl Taylor

Date Completed:
July 2014

Transition Year:
FY 2014

Comments:
The Common Information Model (CIM) is a formal metadata language used to describe processes and artifacts relevant to the climate modeling community. This includes model components, experiments, geographic grids, data files, experimental requirements, and so on. For example, the CIM Schema dictates that a component model can have a set of scientific properties; The CIM CV for CMIP5 atmospheric models dictates that the atmospheric dynamical core component can have a scientific property listing prognostic variables which can contain terms such as surface pressure, wind components, and so on. Users can view the Questionnaire and register for an account at: http://prod.questionnaire.esdoc.webfactional.com

Item Transitioned: New release of OpenClimateGIS v0.08b

Purpose of Transition: This OpenClimateGIS release includes core capabilities necessary for a public, non-beta release. These include the ability to use seasonal time aggregations for calculations, which expands the standard set of climatological summary capabilities; unit translation; and conveniences at the user interface.

From Where:
Organization: NOAA Environmental Software Infrastructure and Interoperability (NESII) Group
Point of Contact: Cecilia DeLuca

To Where:
Organization: OpenClimateGIS users include ESRL PSD affiliates, The E.U. http://climate4impact.eu/
Point of Contact: Joseph Barsugli, Natalia Tatarinova

Date Completed:
June 2014

Transition Year:
FY 2014

Comments:
OpenClimateGIS is an open source Python package for geometric subsetting and format conversion of
CF-compliant NetCDF climate datasets. Download the software at http://www.earthsystemcog.org/projects/openclimategis/download

Item Transitioned: New release of Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) - ESMFv6.3.0

Purpose of Transition: ESMF v6.3.0 is a version of the framework that includes enhanced regridding capabilities, new component-level features such as fault-tolerance, and more complete exchange grid interfaces. This release also includes a production version of the National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC) Layer, a set of conventions and templates that increases the interoperability of ESMF-based modeling systems.

From Where:
Organization: NOAA Environmental Software Infrastructure and Interoperability (NESII) Group
Point of Contact: Cecilia DeLuca

To Where:
Organization: ESMF users at NOAA include the global modeling team at NCEP/EMC led by Mark Iredell, Mark.Iredell@noaa.gov, and model developers at ESRL including Thomas Henderson ESRL/GSD, thomas.b.henderson@noaa.gov. Other organizations that use ESMF for grid remapping include the Navy (Tim Campbell, tim.campbell@nrlssc.navy.mil), NASA (Arlindo da Silva, arlindo.dasilva@nasa.gov), DOE (Mark Taylor, mataylo@sandia.gov), and NCAR (Mariana Vertenstein, mvertens@ucar.edu). ESMF grid remapping is used by data analysis and visualization packages including the Live Access Server developed at NOAA PMEL (steven.c.hankin@noaa.gov) and GrADS (Jennifer Adams, jma@cola.iges.org).
Point of Contact: Mark Iredell, Thomas Henderson, Tim Campbell, Arlindo da Silva, Mark Taylor, Mariana Vertenstein, Jennifer Adams

Date Completed:
January 2014

Transition Year:
FY 2014

Comments:
ESMF v6.3.0 has been updated with patch release ESMF v6.3.0rp1. However, it can be downloaded from the ESMF website, see: http://www.earthsystemmodeling.org/download/releases.shtml

Item Transitioned: New release of Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) - ESMF v6.3.0rp1

Purpose of Transition: In ESMF v6.3.0rp1 the ESMF Python interface (ESMPy) has been integrated with the ESMF source distribution. Users interested in ESMPy no longer need to deal with two separate packages. ESMPy is still considerd in beta phase and the build and installation process has been kept separate from the ESMF build in this release. Also in this release, the ESMF regridding utilities were extended as a result of user feedback to offer destination fraction normalization for the conservative interpolation scheme in addition to the regular destination area normalization. Finally the portability of the library was enhanced in several areas: ESMF can now be built with native support for the Intel MIC architecture, the Apple Clang/LLVM C++ compiler is supported on both Linux and Darwin, and ESMF's dependency on the NetCDF C++ interface has been removed to reduce the number of build dependencies.

From Where:
Organization: NOAA Environmental Software Infrastructure and Interoperability (NESII) Group
Point of Contact: Cecilia DeLuca

To Where:
Organization: ESMF users at NOAA include the global modeling team at NCEP/EMC led by Mark Iredell, Mark.Iredell@noaa.gov, and model developers at ESRL including Thomas Henderson ESRL/GSD, thomas.b.henderson@noaa.gov. Other organizations that use ESMF for grid remapping include the Navy (Tim Campbell, tim.campbell@nrlssc.navy.mil), NASA (Arlindo da Silva, arlindo.dasilva@nasa.gov), DOE (Mark Taylor, mataylo@sandia.gov), and NCAR (Mariana Vertenstein, mvertens@ucar.edu). ESMF grid remapping is used by data analysis and visualization packages including the Live Access Server developed at NOAA PMEL (steven.c.hankin@noaa.gov) and GrADS (Jennifer Adams, jma@cola.iges.org).
Point of Contact: Mark Iredell, Thomas Henderson, Tim Campbell, Arlindo da Silva, Mark Taylor, Mariana Vertenstein, Jennifer Adams

Date Completed:
January 2014

Transition Year:
FY 2014

Comments:
ESMF v6.3.0rp1 is now the default download version on the ESMF website. To get it, click on the Download tab on the home page: http://www.earthsystemmodeling.org/download/

Mechanism: MAPP competitive funding

Item Transitioned: Weekly global tropical storm activity prediction for Week 1 through Week 4 based on the operational CFSv2 45-day forecasts

Purpose of Transition: To support CPC's Global Tropical Hazards Outlook

From Where:
Organization: CPC
Point of Contact: Jae Schemm

To Where:
Organization: CPC
Point of Contact: Jae Schemm

Date Completed:
January 2014

Transition Year:
FY 2014

Comments:
Real-time prediction commenced on Jan. 1, 2014. This is an experimental real-time product which will be made operational when the GTHO becomes operational.

Mechanism: MAPP competitive funding

Item Transitioned: Princeton’s African Flood and Drought Monitoring and Forecasting System to AGRHYMET (a regional center in Niamey, Niger). Transitioned was VIC-based drought monitor, GFS-based short term weather forecast products, NMME-based seasonal SPI and seasonal temperature forecast products. Information includes all related in-situ and remote sensing products for monitoring floods and droughts, including relevant scripts.

Purpose of Transition: Provide an experimental flood and drought monitoring and forecasting system so AGRHYMET can provide regional guidance related to water and food security for west African countries.

From Where:
Organization: Princeton University
Point of Contact: Eric Wood

To Where:
Organization: AGRHYMET a NGO located in Niamey, Niger. The work was requested by UNESCO, without providing funds.
Point of Contact: Abdou Ali

Date Completed:
October 2013

Transition Year:
FY 2014

Comments:
This is an upgrade to an earlier installation. The new features include the GFS short term weather forecasts and the NMME seasonal SPI and temperature forecasts.

Mechanism: MAPP competitive funding

Item Transitioned: Publications detailing research results.

Purpose of Transition: Informing the IPCC report

From Where:
Organization: MAPP-funded Pis
Point of Contact: Dan Barrie

To Where:
Organization: IPCC WG1
Point of Contact: Thomas Stocker

Date Completed:
August 2013

Transition Year:
FY 2013

Comments:
Research to analyze the CMIP5 multi-model projections, funded by the MAPP program, resulted in dozens of publications that were transitioned to support the basis of the scientific discussion in the IPCC WG1 report.

Mechanism: MAPP competitive funding

Item Transitioned: Evaporative Stress Index - drought index representing standardized anomalies in actual-to-potential ET ratio, with actual ET retrieved using GOES thermal infrared imagery.

Purpose of Transition: Provides early warning of rapid onset drought events. ESI aps are provided in realtime via web interface (hrsl.arsusda.gov/drought) to USDM authors and the NIDIS US Drought Portal. Maps are also utilized in monthly CPC North American Drought Briefings.

From Where:
Organization: NOAA, USDA
Point of Contact: Christopher Hain, Martha Anderson

To Where:
Organization: NIDIS, CPC
Point of Contact: Mike Brewer, Kingtse Mo

Date Completed:
June 2013

Transition Year:
FY 2013

Comments:
Production of ESI is in the process of being transitioned to operations as part of the GOES Evapotranspiration and Drought Product System (GET-D) at NOAA's of Office of Satellite and Product Operations. ESI products are planned be available operationally by mid-2015 covering North America at a spatial resolution of 10 km.

Mechanism: MAPP competitive funding

Item Transitioned: Near real time SPI forecasts over the United States

Purpose of Transition: To support operational drought monitoring and outlook at CPC

From Where:
Organization: CPC. R&D
Point of Contact: Kingtse Mo

To Where:
Organization: CPC operation
Point of Contact: Kingtse Mo

Date Completed:
February 2013

Transition Year:
FY 2013

Comments:
N/A

Mechanism: MAPP competitive funding

Item Transitioned: Princeton CFSv2 hydrologic and drought forecasting system to NCEP’s Environmental Modeling Center and Climate Test Bed. The products support CPC’s drought briefing activities (by Kingtse Mo). CFSv2 downscaling algorithm, one land surface model (VIC) and all related scripts and codes for NLDAS v2.0.3

Purpose of Transition: Provide an experimental drought forecasting and hydrologic forecasting system that extends the NLDAS monitoring system at EMC to enable NCEP/EMC to assess the products for US operational drought monitoring and prediction and weather/climate prediction.

From Where:
Organization: Princeton University
Point of Contact: Eric Wood

To Where:
Organization: NCEP Environmental Modeling Center, Climate Test Bed (CTB)
Point of Contact: Michael Ek, Youlong Xia, Jin Huang

Date Completed:
February 2013

Transition Year:
FY 2013

Comments:
This is a new implementation for transitioning the CFSv2 hydrologic forecasting component to NCEP for assessment towards operations.

Mechanism: MAPP competitive funding

Item Transitioned: Seasonal prediction of precipitation

Purpose of Transition: Practical applications

From Where:
Organization: IPRC, University of Hawaii
Point of Contact: H. Annamalai

To Where:
Organization: Government policy and regulations, resource management, public education and outreach. Products are also shared with ENSO Application Center, University of Hawaii.
Point of Contact: Barry Choy & Rashed Chowdhury

Date Completed:
January 2013

Transition Year:
FY 2013

Comments:
Developed and updated experimental seasonal prediction of precipitation over Pacific islands based on CFSv2 forecasts. They are available at: http://apdrc.soest.hawaii.edu/projects/seasonal_prediction/new/