NOAA DOE Precipitation Processes and Predictability Workshop Agenda

Opening Session: Overview & Scope

Workshop Introduction, Slack Channel, and Agenda Overview 
Speakers: Jin Huang (NOAA/CPO), Renu Joseph (DOE/EESSD/EESM), Co-chairs

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NOAA’s Precipitation Prediction Grand Challenge (PPGC) 
Speaker: Wayne Higgins (NOAA/CPO)

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DOE’s Water Cycle Predictability and Precipitation Priorities
Speaker: Gerald Geernaert (DOE/EESSD)

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Overview of Earth System Predictability R&D Workshop 
Speaker: Jim Hurrell (Colorado State University)

Session 1: Limits and Sources of Predictability Part I

This session is aimed at (a) quantifying the current estimates of the limit of precipitation predictability, and the extent to which those estimates are realized as prediction skill, (b) identifying the key biases most likely to impact precipitation prediction over the US at different time scales, (c) propose strategies for exploiting existing/new observations and observation-modeling integration activities to diagnose & address the biases using new methodological and technological advances and (d) put forward diagnostics & metrics for quantifying prediction skill & predictability limits that can be used to detect advances on precipitation forecasts for long term monitoring of progress.

Session Introduction 
Speakers: Ben Kirtman (U. Miami), Magdalena Balmaseda (ECMWF), Samson Hagos (DOE/PNNL), Co-chairs

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Keynote: Signal, Noise and Predictability in North Atlantic Regime Systems 
Speaker: Kristian Strommen (Oxford) and Tim Palmer (Oxford)

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Introduction of Panel
Speaker: Co-chairs

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Mechanisms of S2S Precipitation Predictability 
Speaker: Andrew Robertson (IRI, Columbia University)

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S2S Prediction of Precipitation 
Speaker: Frederic Vitart (ECMWF)

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Observing Air-Sea Interactions Strategy (OASIS) for 2030 
Speaker: Meghan Cronin (NOAA/PMEL)

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MJO-ENSO Teleconnection Interference and Impacts on Blocking 
Speaker: Stephanie Henderson (Univ. of Wisconsin)

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Open Discussion: Speaker & Panel

Slide Reel: Current Capabilities and Systems Relevant to Precipitation Processes and Predictability 

Session 1: Limits and Sources of Predictability Part II

Session Introduction
Speakers: Co-chairs

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Keynote: Subseasonal and Seasonal Precipitation: from Predictability to Prediction 
Speaker: Kathy Pegion (GMU)

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Introduction of Panel
Speaker: Co-chairs

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Thoughts on Exciting Directions to Explore Towards Improving Prediction Skill Of Precipitation 
Speaker: Aneesh Subramanian (Univ. of CO)

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Panelist Remarks 
Speaker: Ruby Leung (PNNL)

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Limits and Sources of Predictability – Seasonal to Multidecadal Scale 
Speaker: Tom Delworth (NOAA/GFDL)

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Panelist Remarks 
Speaker: Russ Schumacher (CSU)

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Open Discussion: Speaker & Panel
Speaker:

Session 2: Key Processes Critical to Precipitation Biases

This session will discuss key processes relevant to precipitation in observations and in global models and identify the deficiencies and missing physics in current models to gain insights for further improving the prediction and simulations.

Session Introduction 
Speakers: Hsi-Yen Ma (DOE/LLNL), Yi Ming (NOAA/GFDL), Co-chairs

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Keynote: Are Global Storm-Resolving Models a Path to Reduce Precipitation Biases in Climate Projections? 
Speaker: Chris Bretherton (UW)

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Introduction of Panel
Speaker: Co-chairs

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Identifying and Improving Key Physical Processes Critical to Precipitation Biases – Hierarchy Modeling and Field Observations 
Speaker: Shaocheng Xie (DOE/LLNL)

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A Model Study of Precipitation and its Extremes Using a Weather Phenomena Based Model 
Speaker: Ming Zhao (NOAA/GFDL)

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Insights from Spaceborne Precipitation Measurements on Model Representations of Convective Systems 
Speaker: Steve Nesbitt (UIUC)

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GPM Radar Observations and CAM5 Depictions of Convective and Stratiform Rain over CONUS 
Speaker: Courtney Schumacher (TAMU)

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Open Discussion: Speaker & Panel

Session 3: Interdisciplinary Processes

This session covers key processes and interactions that are important in the transition zones on either side of an interface such as, ocean-atmosphere, land-atmosphere, aerosol-cloud-precipitation transitions, and troposphere-stratosphere connections.

Session Introduction 
Speakers: Sandy Lucas (NOAA/CPO), Sally McFarlane (DOE/EESSD), Co-chairs

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Keynote: Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions Related to Precipitation Predictability and Bias 
Speaker: Elizabeth Thompson (NOAA/ESRL/PSL)

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Introduction of Panel
Speaker: Co-chairs

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How NOT to Represent Aerosol-Cloud-Precipitation Interactions
Speaker: Andrew Gettelman (NCAR)

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Prediction vs Predictability 
Speaker: Ana Barros (Duke)

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Quantifying the Role that Terrestrial Ecosystems Play in Earth’s Climate 
Speaker: Abigail Swann (UW)

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Stratosphere-troposphere Interactions and Precipitation 
Speaker: Yaga Richter (NCAR)

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Open Discussion: Speaker & Panel
Speaker:

Session 4: Regional Precipitation

This session focuses on the regional aspects of precipitation prediction challenges, with emphasis on gaps in our observing systems, advanced data assimilation methods, and representation of key physical processes in the numerical prediction models for capturing severe weather events, their climatology, and variability.

Session Introduction
Speakers: Angie Pendergrass (NCAR), Ana Barros (Duke), Vijay Tallapragada (NOAA/NWS), Co-chairs

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Keynote: Operational Forecasting of Precipitation: Regional Aspects 
Speaker: Dave Novak (NCEP/WPC)

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Introduction of Panel
Speaker: Co-chairs

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Precipitation Processes in Midlatitude Cyclones: Results From Recent Field Campaigns 
Speaker: Lynn McMurdie (U. Washington)

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Atmospheric Rivers and Their Impact on Precipitation Forecasts on the US West Coast 
Speaker: Marty Ralph (CW3E/Scripps)

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Observational Perspectives from the Upcoming TRACER Campaign 
Speaker: Anita Rapp (TAMU)

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Model Biases in Southeastern US Precipitation 
Speaker: Johnna Infanti (NOAA/CPC)

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Open Discussion: Speaker & Panel

Wrap-Up Session: Agencies/Programs Input

Session Introduction
Speakers: Jin Huang (NOAA/CPO), Renu Joseph (DOE/EESSD/EESM), Co-chairs

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NSF Overview 
Speaker: Anjuli Bamzai (NSF)

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Space-Based Precipitation Activities Enabled by NASA Headquarters 
Speaker: Gail Skofronick-Jackson (NASA)

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DOD Overview
Speaker: Mike Farrar (USAF)

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OSTP – Earth System Predictability; ICAMS
Speaker: Annarita Mariotti (OSTP)

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US CLIVAR Program Perspectives 
Speaker: Mike Patterson (US CLIVAR)

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Session Summaries (One  , Two  , Three  , Four  )
Speakers: Session Chairs

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Next Steps & Report Preparation 
Speakers: Co-chairs