El Niño Arrives; Expected to Persist through Winter 2009-10
Technicians deploy a moored
buoy in the Pacific Ocean to
improve El Niño predictions.
NOAA scientists announced this month that El Niño conditions have returned. El Niño, a periodic warming of waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, has a significant influence on global weather, ocean conditions, and marine fisheries. As part of a long-term pattern known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, this condition occurs on average every two to five years and typically lasts about 12 months. The most recent El Niño occurred in 2006.
Scientists expect this El Niño to continue developing over the next several months and for the condition to last through the Northern Hemisphere Winter of 2009-2010. In its monthly El Niño-Southern Oscillation diagnostics discussion, scientists at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center noted that weekly sea surface temperatures over the eastern equatorial Pacific were at least 1.0 °C above average at the end of June. Increased temperatures in the eastern Pacific are associated with enhanced precipitation over the central Pacific Ocean and drier than average conditions over Indonesia. El Niño conditions can also help to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing the vertical wind shear over the Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic Ocean.
The Climate Program Office funds observation systems and research on climate variability and long-term climate events. This research is fundamental to predicting climate impacts such as higher than normal rainfall or drought in the United States. The Climate Program Office also supports programs that use climate forecasts to address issues such as urban energy needs and agricultural and food supply.
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