Global rainfall pattern could offer prediction skill three weeks out 19 January 2018

Global rainfall pattern could offer prediction skill three weeks out

A new study says that teleconnections with certain phases of a recurring tropical rainfall pattern could extend predictions up to 20-25 days in advance. The authors’ findings provide guidance on which tropical conditions might lead to improved forecasts beyond our current capability – and more time to prepare for extreme events.

Seismic sensors record hurricane intensity, study finds 8 January 2018

Seismic sensors record hurricane intensity, study finds

New line of information could help predict the storms’ future strength

A new study has found that seemingly trivial vibrations in the earth's surface can actually encode the power of hurricanes moving over ocean waters. The findings may make it possible to estimate the strength of past hurricanes, to reveal long term changes in the severity and frequency of these storms, and help scientists understand potential future changes.

What’s the criteria for identifying flash droughts? New study says rapid onset, not short duration 13 December 2017

What’s the criteria for identifying flash droughts? New study says rapid onset, not short duration

“Flash drought” has become a popular term in the media, but the debate of what a flash drought really is has caused confusion that affects scientists’ ability to detect their onset, monitor their development, and understand how they evolve.

New research unlocks the door for better predictability up to 7 months ahead 13 December 2017

New research unlocks the door for better predictability up to 7 months ahead

In many parts of North America, a fluctuating air-pressure pattern that enhances or blocks the storm-steering jet stream, called the Arctic Oscillation (AO), explains more variability in the weather than a primary influencer called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, the AO’s prediction skill has been known to be limited, until now.

New research finds extreme thunderstorms could increase with warming temperatures in tropics and subtropics 13 November 2017

New research finds extreme thunderstorms could increase with warming temperatures in tropics and subtropics

Some of the world’s most intense thunderstorms, associated with destructive impacts like high winds, large hail, and flash floods, occur in the tropical and subtropical regions, including parts of the southern U.S. However, scientists have been uncertain about how such storms will respond in the context of warming temperatures.

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