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Mission

The OAR Climate Program Office’s Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections (MAPP) Program has organized the Marine Prediction Task Force to coordinate the activities of researchers supported through the MAPP-National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) Office of Science and Technology (S&T) Fiscal Year 2017 grant competition “Research to explore seasonal prediction of coastal high water levels and changing living marine resources”. The goal of this research initiative is to help U.S. coastal communities and economies anticipate the threat of climate-related hazards by developing NOAA’s capability to produce relevant seasonal marine predictions for regions along the U.S. coast. This initiative is a substantial contribution to NOAA’s National Ocean Service goals of advancing coastal resilience and intelligence priorities, as well as the NMFS goal of increasing the production, delivery, and use of climate-related information in fisheries management and protected species conservation.

The core membership of the Task Force is comprised of MAPP/S&T-funded principal investigators (PIs) from universities and NOAA and other Federal centers and laboratories. Members of the Task Force also include invited scientists from across the community with interest and expertise in seasonal predictability and prediction for marine applications.

Through monthly teleconferences, the Task Force provides a formal mechanism for PIs to communicate, coordinate, and collaborate. Via the Task Force, PIs share new datasets, methodologies, and results, as well as to ultimately synthesize their collective efforts through technical reports, review articles, or journal special collections and engage with the rest of the community via workshops and meeting sessions. The Task Force also facilitates collaboration with other relevant activities inside and outside of NOAA.

The Marine Prediction Task Force is a three-year effort starting September 2017.

Members

➜ Relevant MAPP Program PIs and selected additional invitees.

Mark Merrifield (Lead), University of Hawai’i at Mānoa

Antonietta Capotondi (Co-Lead), NOAA/ESRL/PSD

Michael Jacox (Co-Lead), University of California, Santa Cruz

Projects

For the abstracts of projects funded from MAPP's FY17 competition, please click here.

Marine Prediction Task Force Terms of Reference

  • MAPP Program Management has selected one lead scientist and two co-leads for the Task Force.
  • The Task Force leads, with input from the broad Task Force membership, provide scientific leadership and establish activities for the Task Force. MAPP Program management provides programmatic guidance on Task Force activities as needed, working with the leads.
  • All PIs supported through the MAPP-S&T Fiscal Year 2017 coastal high water levels and changes in living marine resources competition are expected to participate in the Task Force as described in their proposals. Otherwise, participation in the Task Force is by invitation.
  • Most of the Task Force work will be conducted remotely via telecons or virtual meetings, or through meetings of opportunity.

MAPP Task Force Concept and Terms of Reference

News & Events

NOAA and partners release database for research to bridge weather to climate forecast gap 17 October 2017

NOAA and partners release database for research to bridge weather to climate forecast gap

Two new datasets, funded in part by NOAA Research’s Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) Program, now provide easy public access to 60 terabytes of climate forecasts containing predictions of rainfall, temperature, winds and other variables at the subseasonal level (two weeks to two months ahead).

NOAA Research leads to a new milestone in improving operational predictions from weeks to seasons 27 September 2017

NOAA Research leads to a new milestone in improving operational predictions from weeks to seasons

As an important milestone for NOAA’s ongoing efforts, researchers from universities, NOAA OAR research laboratories and the National Weather Service (NWS) recently met to discuss efforts to improve S2S predictions.

Scientists meet to improve predictions from weeks to seasons 7 September 2017

Scientists meet to improve predictions from weeks to seasons

Bridging the gap between short-term weather and long-term climate predictions has remained challenging for scientists, but public demand and promising research has focused NOAA's attention on this prediction problem. In an effort to further progress, researchers from universities, NOAA and other labs and centers will meet to highlight recent efforts to develop skillful predictions for the subseasonal to seasonal timescale. 

NOAA Research plays key role in advancing subseasonal extreme weather and climate prediction 20 December 2016

NOAA Research plays key role in advancing subseasonal extreme weather and climate prediction

Representatives from academia, government, and the private sector recently concluded a two day NOAA-supported workshop on improving understanding and prediction of extreme weather and climate from two weeks to a season ahead (subseasonal to seasonal). This workshop followed a kickoff meeting for a new NOAA Research-organized Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Task Force.  

Advancing the Prediction of Subseasonal to Seasonal Phenomena 3 October 2016

Advancing the Prediction of Subseasonal to Seasonal Phenomena

NOAA’s Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) program—in partnership with the National Weather Service’s Office of Science and Technology—is funding 14 new three-year competitively funded projects involving $5.5 million in grants and $1.2 million in other awards.

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ABOUT OUR ORGANIZATION

Americans’ health, security and economic wellbeing are tied to climate and weather. Every day, we see communities grappling with environmental challenges due to unusual or extreme events related to climate and weather. In 2011, the United States experienced a record high number (14) of climate- and weather-related disasters where overall costs reached or exceeded $1 billion. Combined, these events claimed 670 lives, caused more than 6,000 injuries, and cost $55 billion in damages. Businesses, policy leaders, resource managers and citizens are increasingly asking for information to help them address such challenges.

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